The precipitation forecast has a look similar to many El Niņo winters with a
wetter-than-average swath from Southern and central California to the
southern Plains and Southeast and then northward along the East Coast. The
active sub-tropical jet stream will send storm tracking across the southern
United States and likely ensure the wet weather in the southern tier of the
nation. This wetter pattern across the southern half of California and into
the Southwest may spell yet another bad season for wildfires next year as
the vegetation that flourishes this rainy season dies under the intense
summer sun. Storminess will be drawn northward along the East Coast by
virtue of how northern jet stream interacts with the pattern. How this
moisture times itself with the arrival of the colder air will determine the
extent of the snowiness. Winter is likely to be snowier than normal over the
Northeast -- a mainstay of all the winters since 2002, whether the winters
were warm or cold. Very warm water relative to normal off all coasts
provides ample moisture for any storm and, timed with cold air, would lend
itself to heavy snow in the higher elevations of the Southwest and
Southeast, and also the chance for some major coastal storms on the East
Coast.
